The Stocks with Value Traps

 

22.08.2022

• Tata Elxsi' having profit Rs.549 crore  and market cap is Rs.63,130 crore.Marico is of 66K crore .

My Portfolio

 

As on 4th May ,2023, as % of total investment amount

1. ITC Ltd. - 36.02 %
2. IDFC First Bank - 27.46 %
3. CDSL India - 10.38 %
4. Oracle Financial Services Software - 7.13 %
5. Hindustan Unilever - 2.40 %
6. Quick Heal Technologies - 5.49 % 
7. L&T Infotech Mindtree - 1.16 %
8. Nestle India - 1.49 %
9. Marico - 2.62%
10. Britannia Industries - 0.31 %
11. Wipro-1.36%
12. HCL Tech-0.29%
13. Infosys - 0.11%
14. Mphasis - 1.97%
15. Sun TV-1.81%

Why I bought IDFC First Bank & My follow ups

 

        

The story started on January 13, 2018,when the merger of IDFC Bank and Capital First is announced.There is a lot of hawa in the business news channels about the merger and the stock price of IDFC bank is going up.So I purchased some.The merger happened and I was holding some shares.

Why Mr. V. Vaidyanathan,created Capital First.My realization is ,he has an  entrepreneurial spirit. Because ,if he had been in ICICI Bank,may be ,by now he would have been the CEO of ICICI bank.What I think that he has entrepreneurial spirit and entrepreneurs like to build their things from scratch.

Ok ...leave it...

    There was a lot of hawa in the business channels about the merger and the profile and past achievements (i.e. Capital First) of Mr. V. Vaidyanathan and I listened to the business channels (which no one should ever have) and bought some shares.

    Ok....what is the difference between a bank and NBFC ? The simple difference is, banks can raise their raw materials i.e. money in terms of deposits and account balance (i.e. minimum average balance in current account and savings account etc.) at very low interest rate and lend the same as loan in high interest rate.But , NBFCs do not have this luxury to raise money in low cost i.e. like banks, they can't get unlimited deposits from public.So, NBFCs raise money through of loans from banks ,bonds and equities etc.

But ,one thing is to be noted that with these limitations ,still the NBFCs like Bajaj Finance and Capital first have produced super normal profits since several years.What it shows that, these NBFCs have absolutely brilliant underwriting skills.In banking domain the simple meaning of "underwriting" is,the ability to sanction a good loan to a customer,which will not become NPA in future".This underwriting skill may be a person specific.But when a person having such skill becomes the CEO ,gradually the skill is crafted in the DNA of the organisation and became the culture of the organisation and remain with the organisation till anybody else disturbs it.What Capital First gets from the merger ,is ability to raise unlimited deposits from the people.Because ,in India banking license is not granted to everyone and highly is regulated.Since IDFC bank was a bank (i.e. has already a banking license) ,therefore post merger capital first also became bank.

        Mr. Vaidyanathan, made very good terms prior to merger like, making IDFC Bank's NPA to below 1%.

    The catch was very simple.Capital First will bring its brilliant underwriting skills to IDFC bank and get the unlimited deposit access and lend the money to retail and make profit.

But ,what were the challenges ?

The Problem is that ,IDFC bank was not a normal bank like HDFC,Kotak etc.IDFC Bank primarily was an infrastructure bank.This means It was like a B2B bank and not like a B2C bank.It was not raising money from public via retail deposits,current and savings accounts.It was raising money via bonds in very high interest rate ,from institutional investors and gives loan to companies having capital intensive businesses like Power,Road,Telecom etc. 

So prior to the merger unlike HDFC bank what were not available in IDFC bank ?

• The branches : Since IDFC Bank was collecting money from institutional players via bonds ,so why would they need several branches ?.Again ,if they are giving infrastructure loans to 30-40 companies only ,then why would they need branches? ATMs ?
• The Banking Softwares-So,if IDFC bank was not taking retails deposits why would they need core banking softwares and they don't need to provide the basic banking service to public like deposit and withdraw cash etc.They also do not need loan disbursement and customer relationship softwares etc.
• The Other banking Services-IDFC bank did not have services like Credit cards,Cash Management,Wealth Management etc.

So ,The merged entity i.e. IDFC first bank has to do capital expenditure for the above things like setting up branches ,ATMs. Purchasing banking softwares for providing banking services to public and disbursing loans, hiring people to provide these services at branches. 

    The merged bank posted 1st quarterly result in Q3,FY 2019 with a loss of Rs.1538 crore.I remembered ,that the CEO mentioned that ,they have written off Rs.2,390.53 crore of goodwill in the quarter.Then COVID happened.The bank posted losses in subsequent quarters.

        But in these quarters ,I am not at all interested in the profit loss statement or balance sheet.But I am more interested in in the management commentary.I used to listen what management is saying in the Q&A sessions,after the quarterly result.After listening the result I was trying verify their actions in ground.

My ground work started & sequence of events happened as follows

• After IDFC First bank is formed and bank has opened a branch in odisha ,I just opened a bank account with Rs.10,000/- monthly average balance,just to evaluate its quality of service.And also I would be able to keep track the quality of service offered by the bank.I opened it with completely online mode with e-KYC and after say 2 years around ,I have never visited the bank regarding any service request.Whatever service I need is available in its mobile application.What I wanted know from this, is to compare its banking experience with other banks.Since then,I was using its Internet banking platform.I can say that its net banking platform is just phenomenal.I have used platforms of other banks.Lets discard the PSU banking space.Because these are not even comparable.I have already used the platforms of HDFC,AXIS,ICICI,FEDERAL,KOTAK MAHINDRA,BANDHAN banks.I can say that FEDERAL and BANDHAN bank's platforms are pathetic and not even near with IDFC First Bank's platform.HDFC banks platform is below it.If I have to rate ,then only KOTAK and IDFC First bank's platforms appear in same level.This evaluation may appear very small thing,but what I wanted to decode is ,from the mobile banking application of the bank,I wanted to decode the vision of the people running it.I wanted to know how much importance the bank gives to technology and mobile banking experience.Imagine,if your mobile banking application becomes like Paytm or PhonePe  ,then what would be the experience.What I evaluated that  bank is serious about technology and user experience.This put a tick mark in my list.
• After opening the account ,one year passed.One day I received an email from the bank regarding  regarding offer for on-boarding credit card.But after merger in 1st ,2nd quarter commentary Mr. Vaidyanathan had said that they will only focus on retails loans and not credit cards.So I was surprised and came to know that they have started the credit card business also.But I was happy that bank is offering full range of services.So I applied it on net banking portal.The system processed my application at instant and issued and generated the virtual credit card instantly within next 10 seconds.I had never seen like this before.Only fintech apps like paytm,freecharge,postpe,slice etc are providing this.Axis and Kotak mahindra banks are providing virtual debit cards instantly. I am using credit cards of HDFC,ICICI,SBI,AXIS since last 8 years.Their credit cards are not issued instantly in app and your application needs at least 7 days to be processed and  will get the physical credit cards in 10-12 days.What I experienced in IDFC's case is far ahead than its peers.So I decoded that IDFC people's thought process and use of technology is well ahead than its peers. 
• After some months while browsing in FACEBOOK,I saw a photograph of someone in facebook,whom I knew.The person has taken a selfie in his shop at Bhubaneswar,Odisha.The interesting thing is that the frame captured a logo of IDFC banks EMI which was pasted in his shop's window.So ,I was curious about whether IDFC First bank started giving consumer durable loans like Bajaj Finance and HDB financial services,because the person is selling inverters and batteries in his shop; which mostly Rs.20,000/- to Rs.25,000/- range.I gave a phone call to the person and started asking him about,whether IDFC first bank's people are offering consumer durable loans like Bajaj finance? How IDFC guys approached the person ? How is their service ? Whether customers are purchasing inverters from him through EMI with IDFC? etc...etc.. The person informed me that IDFC bank has an easy EMI card just like Bajaj Finance through which they finance consumer durable loans.But he also mentioned that the executives of Bajaj Finance are more responsive than that of IDFC's.What I knew from here is,that in consumer durable loan segment Bajaj Finance is ahead of them.But what I noted that ,IDFC bank also trying to expand in this segment.At least they have the vision to encash this segment.In my area ,till now I have not seen Federal or Bandhan bank providing loans in this segment.
• I  generally purchase groceries from same kirana shops i.e mostly from one or two.One day when I visited the shop ,what I noticed that the shop keeper had put a UPI QR code of IDFC first bank and as usually I was curious about this because since launch the of UPI I have only seen QR codes of PayTM,PhonePe etc in my area and BharatPe just came to my area in 2021-22.I have never seen QR codes of Bandhan ,HDFC,KOTAK,AXIS,ICICI,FEDERAL etc in my area.I asked the shopkeeper ,whether he had opened an account with the bank? He said yes ? Then I asked whether he is maintaining Rs.10000/- minimum balance ?Again he said ..yes...I was surprised because in my area HDFC bank is asking for Rs.5000/- monthly balance.So,what I decoded that the marketing executives of IDFC first bank has good convincing skill as they convinced a small kirana shop keeper to open a savings account that too with Rs.10,000/- monthly balance.Again I asked about the quality of service the shopkeeper is experiencing.The shopkeeper said that he is liking the service and the account was opened within 5 minutes in his shop through hand held devices.I was very happy listening this.Why I was happy ? Later I realized that I started enjoying ownership of the business i.e. ownership of IDFC first bank and less concerned with its stock price movement.
• Mean time I was observing that ,I am receiving promotional mails daily from IDFC first bank since when I opened.I rarely get emails from Federal and Bandhan Bank.While browsing the internet ,google also placing IDFC's ads in the web pages that I visit.So I understood that they are good at digital marketing also.To confirm this I visited IDFC First Bank's Youtube channel.They have ads with south indian regional languages.This means they want to connect to regional people through local language also.
• Earlier,in my district IDFC first bank do not have any branch.But in june ,2022 while travelling ,I noticed that the bank opened a small branch in the road side.I was happy that my company is expanding.So,to check the ground reality I visited the branch and found that only two people were present .i.e.one sales executive and the manager.No body was at the cash counter.The executive asked me nicely about the purpose.I lied to him that I will open an account for my mother but not now,but in 1st week of august.I deliberately choosed 1st week of august ,because I knew that bank will declare its Q1,FY 23 result on 30th of july and If I asks the executive to visit after that,I can ask more questions to him based on the results and commentary made by the bank for Q1,FY23.But one thing I noticed that the executive did not push me to open the account immediately, but gently took the lead by asking my number.I waited full july month ,to know whether he is calling me in between and pushing me to open the account.But he just called me after 1st of august.So what I observed that their marketing is not push based and instead they are betting their marketing strategy on quality of service based.During my visited to the bank ,I had asked him about the current loan book ,number of accounts etc.I also asked why no one is at cash counter ?He mentioned that ,since their branch is opened recently and not much cash transactions are going in the branch,So they are busy at field to acquire new customers through opening accounts.I also asked him whether he is happy about how the bank is treating its employees and he mentioned that he is getting more salary and life insurance from the bank.I also asked whether they are offering consumer durable loans in this area or their executives are sitting in the car show rooms for disbursing loans ? He said yes.That was my ground work on that day.
•  But since the merger till Q4,FY22;most of the quarter the bank was posting loss.Interesting thing is that bank is profitable in operating level i.e. its making profit in pre-provisioning level.But what is hurting is that the provisions.These are the loans which are sanctioned to infrastructure companies in pre merger era and became NPA in post merger era.Since 4-5 quarters this cycle was going.In each quarter's conference call Mr. Vaidyanathan says that all provisions are made,but again in next quarter some accounts slip and provisions occur.And due to this stock was beaten.I also noticed that Mr. Vaidyanathan is feeling little bit nervous ,I would say.Because he is unable to keep his words in front of shareholders.But I am decoding something else.What I observed that even if the bank is posting loss ,still they are making provisions aggressively and trying to keep the books clean and also they are putting the name of the defaulters i.e about NPA accounts in investor presentations and conference calls,what other banks do not disclose.I was trying to judge how the management is open about the problems to the shareholders and the integrity and honesty of the management.
• I was just observing whether the bank is building right processes or not.In the month of june last week,2022,the stock was beaten to Rs.29/- and the market cap came down to around 19K crore crore.In june 1st week Bandhan bank was available at 60K crore market cap and as on 12th Aug,2022 ,Bandhan bank is available at 44K crore.So ,I purchased the stock aggressively about 1/3rd of my earmarked amount for IDFC first bank.I was waiting for the final confirmation i.e. result of Q1,FY 23 i.e I want to check whether the processes are delivering the result at ground or not?.In the quarter the bank posted Rs.485/- crore profit with Rs.0.77 EPS. Full year EPS may go to Rs.3/- So,if 20 PE multiple will given to it ,then stock should go to Rs.60 and still market cap will be at only 40K crore.So I invested rest 2/3rd of my earmarked amount.

My Observations

• Management is not giving frequent media interviews i.e. only giving interviews after quarterly result.
• Management do not want to be in media attention.
• The CEO is little bit impatient while answering media queries and Q&As during conference calls.May be he is little bit excited to post profits after so many quarters of losses.

My Concerns

• Bank has already diluted equity two times, post merger.
• The equity size is already of Rs.6219 crore and will be going to dilute in future for fund raising and ESOPs.
• The bank is carrying infra bonds of Rs.22000 crore which will be maturing in 4 years (including FY 2022-23) and need to be paid by FY 2025-26.So, roughly avg Rs.5500 crore CASA + retail deposits is required by bank each year for repaying these bonds.Since the bank do not have that much profit to absorb Rs.5500 crore each year,So in case if it is not able to raise CASA ,then it may raise the same via equity ,which in turn will dilute the equity further.

I am writing this as my investment diary....If the business grows as I researched,then I will store it as my learnings and if the business do not perform ,I will rewind it and will check what I missed.

22.08.2022

• I observed today that ,the bank just provided a feature on its website to do video KYC for the existing customers.You just need to put your registered mobile number in the text box and the system will send you an OTP on your mobile number and you have to put your OTP and verify.Once the OTP is verified your name will be displayed and an link for Video KYC will be sent to you through SMS.What it means customers do not need to visit the branch in person for KYC.
• Kotak Mahindra Bank is not accepting video KYC for all locations.
• The bank tied up with ZERODHA for 3-in-1 trading account.The feature is like in single click the amount will be transferred to your trading account and you will also be able to access your holdings from IDFC bank's net banking portal.What it will provide the bank is ideal funds available with the trading account can be parked in the savings account and bank will get CASA.
• Similarly IDFC guys tied up with Flipkart for pay later service.
• Recently while doing recharge for JIO on its website ,on the payment gateway ,I saw cash back offer from IDFC banks credit card.What I think is ,they want visibility for their credit cards,which are absent from banks like Federal,Bandhan etc.
• They recently provided feature to bill payment for other credit cards (like CRED ) on their banking platform. 
• What am I observing is that,they are making tie ups with No.1 entities (ex-Flipkart,Zerodha etc.) in their respective fields.The most important thing is ,they have the intent to grow.What am I observing is,they are providing features like Fintech companies in their application.Someone in their team is thinking like fintech guys.

Lets see how it goes ?

The Margin of safety I need in banking stocks

                    There are two types of companies according to the profits they make.1st type of companies which can make profits and have the ability to transfer that cash to the shareholders.2nd type of companies which make profits but can't transfer all the cash to the shareholders.Its not like that, they can invest the cash and make more money for shareholders,but it's the nature of business which does not allow the 2nd type of companies to throw cash to the shareholders.Yes I am talking about banking and NBFC businesses.What is a perfect business? A perfect compounding machine is that which invests back it's profits to the business and makes more profit.First understand the lending business.The bank takes the raw material i.e. deposits from people and lend that money to people as loan and difference between deposit interest and loan interest is the profit for the bank.The bank may make Rs.10,000 crore profit in a year,but can't share Rs.8,000 crores of profit to shareholders as dividend because it is having huge liability as deposits.So the profits of the banks are illusionary i.e. which you can see but can't feel.Then how the shareholders will make money? The only way the shareholders will make huge money in a lending business is ,only by the appreciation in the stock price.The only way the stock price will go multi-fold is, if it's earnings grows in handsome rate.So,there are two things you need to understand that ,1st the bank should be in its initial phase where the base profit is very low ,so that profits can mathematically rise in high % rate.2nd thing is ,the market cap should be of very low base,so that sufficient room is available in the market cap so that it can go up multi-fold. In other words its current stock price should not be discounting it's potential future market cap.

                The risk is that, what if market decides that from now onwards ,it will not give 30 PE multiple  to a lending business...since the lending businesses do not have the ability to pay high dividends to the shareholders and decides to give 10 PE to such businesses.So in this scenario if u have bought the stock in the initial phase of the business ,then after 15 years, the earnings would have multi-fold and even if market gives low PE multiple ,still your can make multi-fold profit.

                       The perfect scenario for a bank to make super normal profit for its shareholders is that, when it becomes big enough and making Rs.40,000/- crores of yearly profit,then it should use this cash flow to decrease it's deposit liability by Rs.40,000/- crore.But technically it is not possible.What HDFC Bank would tell to it's depositors ? Is it going to tell it's depositors to take back their money or reduce interest rates drastically.In both the cases the risk is that it's deposits can collapse at instant.Another risk is that it can loose customer relationship and customers may not come for taking loans from the bank.So,the bank need to play the game 365 days irrespective of potential availability loan demand by quality customer.Because if it do not find sufficient good customers,then it's margin will hurt,as it has to pay the interest to the depositors.So the bank need to keep hunting for customers.I just don't like when companies hunt for growth.It just make them impatient and they tend to focus on outer score card rather than inner score card.When companies hunt for growth ,they are more obsessed with top line.They focus more on results rather than processes.But what I think, it is the process ,which creates result.So ,I am afraid of companies who are in hunt for growth.I like businesses ,where organic growth is there and hunting is not required.

        So, for avoiding above risks,If I want to invest in a lending business,then I need the following margin of safety.

• Organic growth opportunity should be there.
• The lending business should be growing i.e. the management should have the hunger for growth, but not hunting for growth.
• The lending business should be at it's initial phase and at low market cap as well i.e. its current stock price should not be discounting it's potential future market cap.
• The company should be more concerned with processes ,rather than sales volume.
  
  
  

What type of businesses will not make money ? Socialist businesses in a country.....My learnings

     

Over the years what I learned that not all the businesses make money.Let me say it differently,over the years what I learned and realized that some type of businesses will definitely not make money.

The soldiers in the economy

    Some businesses are like soldiers in the economy of a country ,which are the basic requirements of the country.These are the businesses over which other businesses in the country will flourish.So these soldier businesses are highly regulated and pricing power will never be granted to them.Because these are the basic requirements of the country and if pricing power is granted to these businesses ,then it will affect all the other businesses in the country.Some of the examples are

• Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs)
• Power Generation / Transmission / Distribution Companies
• Mining companies
• Railways
• Oil Marketing Companies etc.

Example

Power generating companies have entry barrier and not anybody can come and start generating power immediately.

Energy is highly essential. 

Not everybody can produce it.

    Then why the companies like NTPC,PGCIL etc do not make money for shareholders. Because even if they make highly essential products/services and  no body else can make them,still they don't have the right to fix the prices for their products / services that they provide.

    If the producer of the product do not have the right to fix the price for its products,then it will not make money.No matter even if it makes fighter aircrafts having alien technology, it will definitely not make money. These are like socialist businesses which are not allowed to make make money so that others can make money.   

     If pricing power is granted to the power generation companies ,then they can increase tariff and cost of production of  for FMCG,Automobile companies etc.will rise. So power tariff will be kept lower deliberately. 

Example

    Oil marketing companies like Indian Oil,BPCL etc are selling  petrol and diesel in losses and Reliance and Essar petrol pumps are avoiding selling  or selling less petrol and diesel so that that they can make less loss.

    Every country which is democratic in nature and do not have sufficient natural resources (like Land,Oil,Energy,food,minerals etc. )  to support its population is definitely a socialist country because it has a gap between need and availability of resources and the country need to distribute the resources as per the need of the people and not as per the wish of the people, which is a classic definition of socialist country. and if such country now allows you to make profits i.e.  if it supports capitalism now ,then there must be a set of businesses in that country which operate in the socialist rule and they are not allowed to make huge profits, so that other business can make profits and enjoy capitalism.

What I learned that ,category-A type of businesses are not allowed to make money so that category-B type of businesses can make money and  I need to stay out of such category-A type of business.... 

When Not To Buy

         Before buying any company, I must check my default check list.Apart from that even if all the check lists are satisfied,the most important thing I should not ignore is "valuation".Remember that a company may be a good one since last 15 years or it might remain excellent for next 20 years.But its stock price will not be good in between this time period, from a buyer's point of view.Stock prices oscillate in between cheap and expensive and I need to buy a good business in cheap or fair valuation.Sometime the stock price may not come to my calculated valuation and for years and I might have to sit with cash.It is okay if I sit with cash.But I need that margin of safety so that if the stock I purchased  do not rise ,then also I can sit with mental peace.A good purchase price provides me that mental peace.

 Scenario-1

            Often you might be hearing this in business news channels that a particular stock is corrected 40% from its 52 week high and looks attractive.

            If the business is not worth investing,then there is no point in calculating the valuation of the stock.It does not matter how much % the stock is corrected from its top.

            I just don't understand the logic behind it.

            TCS...no doubt ..it is a good company..... as on 19.07.2022...its stock price is Rs.3074/- and its all time high was Rs.4043/- .So,it means as on date the stock is corrected 32% from its all time high. Now TV channels are telling that TCS looks attractive.

give me a break....

            look at its  current market cap ...its 11.21 Lakh crore ....so at its all time high its market cap was 14.79 Lakh crore.

            Even if you buy TCS at current price ...if you think to make your money double in TCS ,then its market cap needs to be 22.42 Lakh crore.Lets say its earnings will justify its stock price ,then its current EPS (i.e. Earnings per share) i.e. Rs. 104 need to be doubled i.e. Rs.208. TCS has nearly 22% margin.So in order to make EPS double ,its revenue needs to be doubled i.e. from 1.95 lakh crore to 3.9 lakh crore.Lets say it will happen over next 5 years it means its revenue needs to be grown at 14% .But its revenue is growing at 5.71% since last 5 years.So if the whole IT industry will grow at 15% for next 5 years ,then it will cross India's GDP perhaps.Again what other IT companies will do ? TCS is not the only company in this planet.Perhaps it need to go to the Mars for getting projects.

            currently TCS is available at 30 PE multiple.Its growing at 5% and PE is at 30.It does not make sense.

                Two things can happen....

           1st... its stock price may stay there constant as it is for several years and gradually its earnings will increase slowly and justify its price.In this case you will not loose money in paper.But you will get -ve 6% yearly because in India inflation is  around 6% minimum.

            2nd....its stock price will collapse because market will not give 30 times premium to a 5% growth company.Lets say if it re-rates TCS to 15 PE multiple.So you will loose 50% of your money in paper.

                In both way you will loose money.

                Lets say we give premium to TCS ..since it can give whole EPS to shareholders ...still the 30 PE and target 22.42 Lakh crore market cap in next 5 years looks insane.

                I may be wrong...but I don't want to take that much risk to make my money double.

                Where we make the mistake is....we see the correction in stock price in isolation.

                But we need to see the following things in together

• Current market cap of the company
• Current Price to earning multiple.
• How much headroom is there for the market cap to go up (considering the profit growth).
• What % of the EPS, the company can give to shareholders as dividend without affecting its business.

Scenario-2

            Often we take the wrong reference point to evaluate the companies in different situations.I consider these as false indicators.Some of these examples are.

• Bank deposit interest rate during COVID pandemic is very low ..say 3.5%.So, if TATA Power is available at 4% dividend yield,then we should buy its stocks.PSUs are available at 5% dividend yield ,so we should buy them.These are all wrong metrics which seems right in extra ordinary situations.You need to ask yourself, that whether you want to own the businesses like TATA Power and PSUs.If not then it just does not matter in what dividend yield these stocks are available.If the business is an investment grade and headroom for multiple year growth is available and stock is available at 5% dividend yield and low PE ,then it makes a perfect buy.But you need to consider all the parameters together.Remember you invest in a business for growth in earnings not for dividend yield only.
• When interest rates are low,even the companies with 5%  earnings growth ,available at 40 PE will attract you.This is a perfect illusion, as you are taking only the interest rates as the bench mark for calculating the valuation and ignoring the inflation completely.As per simple economics, interest rates should beat inflation and at present in INDIA ,it is not beating the inflation.So ,your mind will tell you that its ok to buy the stock at 40 PE since interest rate is very low.Remember that ,what is important is the "sustainability of growth in the prices of your stocks " .This is the whole point for which you are investing in stocks and this can only be justified by growth in the earnings of the company.But if you are justifying the growth in stock prices due to low interest rates,then it is nothing else just a bubble.

        At present some of the good companies are available at insane PE & Market cap.

Example- TCS,Infosys,D-mart,TITAN etc....

 

My Check List for Buying a Company

1. Must not be a loss making company.
2. Must not be a PSU.
3. Must be able to remain profitable for next 15-20 years to come.
4. Must have zero or very low debt.
5. Must not be a capital intensive business.
6. Its Product and services must have competitive advantages i.e. 10x better than its competitors.
7. It must be very difficult to copy its business by any other company.
8. Value migration must not be happening or to going be happened in its business in next 10-15 years.
9. Technological or habitual disruption factor should not be there.
10. Customer loyalty must be there in the products/services offered by the firm (by force or choice )
11. Entry Barrier must be there in the business so that other companies can't take over its business or take its future business opportunities.
12. Pricing power must be there with the company for its products or services i.e. the company must have dominance over its customer,distributor,retailer
13. There must be sufficient head room to grow its business.
14. The company must have the ability to throw cash to the share holders (may be in a longer period of time)
15. Must be professionally run company.If it is 1st or 2nd generation company,then 1 or 2 family members of the promoter in the board is okay.
16. All the key positions in the company should not be held by family members.
17. The company should be such that ,any idiot can run it.
18. Management should be good at capital allocation.
19. Stock must be available at good valuation.
20. If FIIs/DIIs have less holding,then it is better.

  Its a learning process ...and will be refined over time.

What Not to Buy

     Before buying any stock ask the following question to yourself

• If the company is not profit making in the operation level,then I just through away the company from my list of thinking.I just don't want to even think to take their names.The Indian unicorns Zomato,Paytm,BYJU etc...etc...all are loss making companies as on date.
• People argue that these are cutting their losses day by day and will be profitable by 2-3 years.I don't buy stocks of the company which is supposed to post less loss.I am not interested in companies which can make profit in future.I am interested in those companies which are making profits and will make profits in future.
• I judge the  companies in its ability to remain profitable and not just only profitability.Check if the  company is profitable today ,and whether it will able to remain profitable for next 20 years.If you have doubt then simply discard the name.
• A loss making company means simply a no from my side.
• Do you really understand the business of the company or you are just buying because everyone else is buying that stock.
• If you understand the business,then is it wise to put money in that business  ?  Yes ,you must ask this question to yourself.I am telling you my choice I don't put my money in capital intensive businesses like Steel,Telecom,Automobile,Airlines,Energy companies etc.These companies need Rs.100 for running their business and earn Rs.10/- profit.Now even if they earn Rs.10 profit,they can't give you back this Rs.10 entirely.Because ,they will need money for running their business.Lets say they can give you back Rs.2/- as dividend.Check the dividend paid by these type of companies,you will understand what am I saying.Don't consider PSUs are exceptional ,just because they are paying good dividends.Look at their balance sheets.They are carrying huge debts.It just doesn't make any sense.Its like someone who takes blood from the blood bank every month in order to be alive, but donating blood to others.Its simple economics if you have debt ...pay the debt first...don't pay dividends.They just pay dividends because their boss needs money.
• Always judge the company by its ability to throw cash from its profits,to the shareholders as dividends.IT companies like TCS,Infosys etc. FMCG companies like ITC,HUL,Britannia,Marico etc can pay you almost all the profits as dividends.Because these companies are debt free and they do not need more capital for running their business. 
• Dividends are the only hard cash which an investor gets in his bank account.Ask yourself whether the company is paying dividends regularly.If yes,then the company must have very negligible debt.Because if debt is there,then there is no point in giving dividends to the shareholders. 
• If the company is not paying dividend,then ask yourself why is it not paying dividends? Remember that ,the very purpose of a company is to make money for its shareholders and the company creates it in terms of profit with hard cash.The only way it can reward its shareholders is by sharing profit with its shareholders by paying dividends and the capital appreciation in terms of rising stock price is a by product only and it is not in the control of the company.So,if a company is not paying dividend to its shareholders ,then it is like an unwritten promise to the shareholders that, dear shareholders I am not giving you the profits today,because I can use this money to make more profits for you in future.So,you have to check whether ,the company is actually retaining your profits for making more profits or it is just retaining it for its survival only.

• My No List

1. A loss making company.
2. Capital Intensive company (Infra,Energy,Telecom,Steel,Cement,Automobile etc.).
3. Public Sector Undertakings.
4. The Business I don't understand.

This is my learning ...and it will be refined over time ...because investing is an art...... 

IDFC first Bank

 Earnings Call Q4-FY 2021-22

• Retail fee income is 84% of the total fee income.
• More than 7 Lacs credit cards issued without any DFAs (mostly for existing customers i.e account holders)
• Current accounts are 18% (earlier 11%) of the CASA accounts and Mr. Vaidyanathan admitted that improvement needed in this segment.  
• Gross slippages = 1400 cr Net Slippages =700 cr
• Corporate A/c of 250 cr slipped this quarter (a legacy account i.e. loan given by pre merger IDFC bank )
• Only 500 cr is left from Vodafone (earlier it was 3500 cr)
• Mr. Vaidyanathan mentioned that no verticals of the total loan book would exceed 15% of it and it means they want to diversify their business.
• Fee income is 22% of the total income.
• Cash is consuming mainly in 3 segments i.e. credit card business,setting up branches and paying interest for legacy bonds of 20000 cr (having interest payout of 8.8%).
• (a) legacy high-cost liabilities, (b) retail branch/ ATM/ liabilites set up expenses, and (c) set up of credit cards, there is a net profit impact of ~ Rs. 500 crores/ quarter
• The bank is targeting upper middle class income group.
• Employee cost is supposed to go down though loan book is growing and that is because digitization.
• Added 42 new branches and total branches becomes 641 and 70% of the new branches are opened in rural and semi urban area.

Clearstream vs CDSL

 2021

Net Revenue = 835.4 Million Euros =6731 cr INR

Net Profit = 459.6 Million Euros = 3703 cr INR

But in Germany there is only one depository i.e. "Clearstream"

But in India there are 2 depositories i.e. NSDL and CDSL

clearstream operates worldwide

    

settlement and custody activities are reported under the Clearstream (post-trading) segment. In providing the post-trade infrastructure for Eurobonds and other markets, Clearstream is responsible for the issuance, settlement, management and custody of securities from 59 domestic markets worldwide, plus the international market. Net revenue in this segment is driven mainly by the volume and value of securities under custody, which determine the deposit fees. The settlement business depends primarily on the number of settlement transactions processed by Clearstream via stock exchanges as well as over the counter (OTC). This segment also contains net interest income from banking business. Clearstream’s contribution to ESG stems from proxy voting instruction and distribution services offered as part of investor services supporting customers to comply with regulatory, governance and market standard requirements as well as stakeholder expectations.

depository revenue = 1555 cr INR

Annual issuer charges =4812 cr INR

Lets say both NSDL and CDSL has 50% market share each

depository revenue = 750 cr INR and Annual Issuer revenue = 2400 cr INR for CDSL i.e total = 3150 cr INR

with 50% margin it becomes = 1575 cr INR

Total Equity Shares = 10,450,0000

EPS becomes = 1575 cr / 10,450,0000 = 150 INR

if you give 30 times PE multiple then the share price becomes = 150 x 30 = 4500 INR

But conditions are  

1. I don't know whether clearstream's revenue comes only from Germany or worldwide
2.